# We really hate uncertainty

One urn is see-through and contains a mix of 50 white marbles and 50 black marbles. The other urn also contains 100 marbles, but it is not transparent, and the ratio of black-to-white marbles is unknown. So the question is: “If you can draw a black marble in one pick, without looking, you win $100. Which urn do you draw from?”

Most people, Mueller wrote, choose the left urn. But why? Wasn’t it possible the question-mark urn was filled with only black marbles? Mueller explained thatpeople usually picked the see-through urn to avoid uncertainty. At least when they could see the marbles they knew exactly where they stood. This type of decision-making is called the Ellsberg Paradox, named after Daniel Ellsberg, the man who introduced the urn test and established the concept of “ambiguity aversion.”

From an interesting article($) on why innovations in sports often take ages to catch on. Maybe explains why we're loathe to recognise it in our public discourse.

*My emphasis*.